Sunday 30 June 2013

Tour de France 2013: Stage 3 Preview

STAGE three waves goodbye to Corsica with a short but tough ride along the coast to Calvi. It is only 145km long but most of the route is rolling and includes four categorised climbs.
 
Like stage two a breakaway will go away early and the likes of Blei Kadri and Lars Boom will probably appear in it as they attempt to take an early lead in the King of the Mountains competition.
 
However their hopes of success are limited.
 
Again a climb towards the end of the stage will make the difference. The 2nd Category Col de Marsolino comes 13km from the finish and will severely thin the peleton out.
 
It is 3.3km long and has an average gradient of 8.1%. That will be enough to shell the majority of the big sprinters out and will undoubtedly provide a springboard for somebody to launch an attack for the stage win.
 
Once over the top the road descends all the way to the finish and could give someone like Slyvain Chavanel a big opportunity. He tried his luck on stage two and will definitely see this as an opportunity for himself. He has the explosive power to get up the climb and can descend with the best of them.
 
Europcar were very animated on stage two and will definitely be so again. Thomas Voeckler will definitely have a go at some point as will Pierre Rolland.
 
FDJ were also very animated during stage two as they looked to get French champion Arthur Vichot into position. Expected the same again this time around.
 
It was also great to see World Champion Philippe Gilbert at the front end of the race. BMC did a lot of work on the front yesterday, predominantly to keep Cadel Evans and Tejay Van Garderen safe but that could also work in his favour.
 
However it is a big ask for escapees to evade the clutches of a peleton who will be at full tilt and determined not to let a breakaway make it this time. So if it does all come back together it will be a very reduced field that enters Calvi.
 
Peter Sagan will be there again as will people like Francesco Gavazzi, Edvald Boassen-Hagen and Tony Gallopin, if he can avoid team duties defending the yellow jersey.
 
Jan Bakelants shocked everybody with his attack and won a completely deserving stage. He has a great chance to retain that jersey as well. RadioShack will work their socks off to pull back any break and with no time bonuses on offer at the finish line all he has to do is finish with the leaders.
 
For an outsider go for Daryl Impey. He finished well on stage two and could well be up there again.
 
Well it's not as if Orica Green Edge have been mentioned much so far this Tour is it so they could do with some publicity!

Saturday 29 June 2013

Tour de France 2013 : Stage Two Preview

I WAS going to start this piece with the following sentence: "IF stage one was fairly easy to predict then stage two is anything but."

However stage one was as unpredictable and crazy as they come!

Orica Green Edge stamped their mark on the Tour early but not in the way they would have wanted as they jammed their bus under the finish gantry.

This caused the finish line to be moved to the 3km point as the riders hit the 10km to go mark.

As they wound up for the new sprint the inevitable crash happened, claiming Peter Sagan and Alberto Contador as it's highest profile victims. Mark Cavendish managed to avoid it and stay upright but couldn't help but get caught up behind it.

Then the bus was moved and the finish line reinstated to it's original position.

Andre Greipel never made it as a mechanical issue put pay to his chances but his fellow countryman Marcel Kittel was the big winner, picking his way through the carnage to beat Alexander Kristoff.

The ramifications will go on all night but as far as times go everybody has been awarded the same time as Kittel, which is absolutely the right thing to do. Green Edge will face some sanctions as well as a lot of animosity from the rest of the peloton and watching public.

So after that absolutely bizarre day stage two might not be as unpredictable as we first thought.

It will be though!

The profile suggests that the pure sprinters won't be around come the finish. Two cat 2 climbs and two cat 3 should thin out the field enough to see off the likes of yellow jersey Kittel, Griepel and Nacer Bouhanni.

However that's where the certainty ends.

The last climb is the Cat 3 Cote du Salario, the summit of which comes 12 km from the finish. It is only 1 km in length but has an average gradient of 8.9%.

It is the type of climb which could provide a springboard for anyone with a stage victory in mind. And with time gaps from today being none existent a stage victory should bring with it the next yellow jersey.

It is a finish which seems a little similar to Milan San-Remo which means it could be a day for the puncheurs. Slyvain Chavanel, Thomas Voeckler, Fabian Cancellara, Phillipe Gilbert are just some of the names that could be in the mix come the finish.
Pure sprinters should be jettisoned before the finish but don't rule out Mark Cavendish though. He is a previous winner in San Remo and is in good form. Stage one will have been a bitter disappointment and I can imagine a fired up Manxman.
If he can get to the top of the final climb in contact he will be a big favourite.

For an outsider Johnny Hoogerland may be the one for you, that is if riding into a barrier on stage one hasn't affected him much! But he is no stranger to adversity, who can forget his coming together with barbed wire two years ago, and in February this year he was involved in a car accident while out training which left him with five broken ribs, a bruised liver and bone fractures to his spine.
But to everybody's surprise he returned to action in May (some footballers should take note) and just last weekend he shocked everybody by winning the Dutch national championship.

He will want to show off that jersey and before tiredness creeps in later in the Tour expect him on the attack at some point this week.

My big favourite was Sagan but a lot will depend on his condition in the morning. Stage one wasn't ideal for him, even before his tumble, but stage two could be. He has the ability to handle the climb, can descend well and we all know about his sprinting qualities.

So he is my favourite....if things go as planned.... which they probably won't!

All of the above could be blown out of the water if one of the favourites decides to take the bull by the horns and attack.

Joaquin Rodriguez and Alejandro Valverde are two that love this type of parcours. They might also think they can gain some time over the likes of Froome and Contador.

It is more likely they will keep their powder dry though. It's a long way to Paris and it's a big ask to take the jersey so early and hold it all the way.

But don't quote me on that!

Friday 28 June 2013

Tour de France 2013 : Stage One Preview

THREE things are certain when you look at this year's opening stage of the Tour de France.

One, it will end in a sprint finish. 
Two, the winner will walk away with the first yellow jersey of the race, and 
Three, there will be an almighty crash in the closing stages!

Always happens, absolute guarantee! The first week of any Grand Tour is a frenetic, nervous and dangerous affair, never mind the biggest of them all. Every one of the 198 strong field wants to be in those first few places on the road and obviously the maths just doesn't fit!

So if you factor that in it's incredibly difficult to pick a winner. So imagine that this year, for the first time in a very long time, the peleton arrives at the finish unscathed. Could we see the British National champion swap the iconic blue and red bands for a yellow jersey?

All things considered yes. Mark Cavendish is undoubtedly the fastest man on two wheels and in a clean fight he should win more often than not. By his own admission he normally takes a few days to get into a three week tour but this year he has tailored his training specifically with this stage in mind.

And it looks to have worked. His form in winning the nationals in Glasgow last weekend was impressive, getting into the winning move early and even putting a little attack in up the short but steep climb of Montrose Street.

His leadout train has misfired a few times this year but there is no doubting the strength he has at his disposal for this one. Gert Steegmans will be his final leadout man but with the likes of Sylvain Chavanel, Tony Martin & Peter Velits as well OPQS should be a the front of affairs heading into the last km.

His big rival for the green jersey is last years winner Peter Sagan but this is not the best type of stage for him. He is fearless and a great bike handler so if there is a pile-up there's a good chance he can navigate through it safely. However he doesn't have the basic straight line speed of his rivals so yellow might elude him this time around. His time will come though.

Like Cavendish, Andre Greipel heads into the Tour as the new national champion of Germany and on paper he will be the big rival to take yellow. His results earlier in the year were very good but went through a quiet spell until the recent Ster ZLM Toer and the nationals. Make no bones about it though the 'Gorilla' is one of the favourites for the win.

Outside of these look to the likes of Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb and Nacer Bouhanni. All are in good form and in the case of the first two they are capable of getting to the finish with the lead group over a bit more of the lumpy stuff. So even if they fail to win here they will be in with a shout on other days.

As well as the sprinters expect to see some have-a-go heroes try their luck before the finish. The likes of a Jens Voigt or a Fabian Cancellara may try and upset the sprinters (and stay clear of any problems) in the final few kilometres.

In other words anything could happen! But as I stated earlier if you want a sure thing, then back the crash!