Saturday 20 July 2013

Tour de France 2013 : Stage 21 Preview

AFTER three long and tortuous weeks around France, the Tour is coming to an end in style, with the now infamous finish on the Champs-Elysees in Paris.

But while the glory of that final stage win is still up for grabs, for those riders who have chasing the general classification, the tour is over. And that means that for the second year running 'God Save the Queen' will be ringing out over the Paris skyline as tour celebrates another British win.

Chris Froome has proven to be the strongest rider, despite some serious challenges over the last couple of days. Victory at Ax-3-Domaines and Mont Ventoux proved he could handle himself in the mountains and his performances in the Individual Time Trials, where he finished 2nd and 1st showed his all round ability. 

He still has to finish of course but the final stage is for the majority of the field, and not just for Froome, a celebratory ride through the streets of the capital. Expect the almost obligatory victorious team shot as well as glasses of champagne being quaffed!

The race always finishes along the Champs-Elysees, only the starting point changes. This year for the 100th edition we are staring at the Palace of Versailles. The only changes for the centennial race are that the race is going to be run in the evening to accommodate the planned fireworks display after the finish and instead of turning in front of the Arc de Triomphe, we are actually going around it for the first time.

While it is a celebration for most, there are some for whom this stage means a huge amount. We've not spoken about them for over a week now but they're back. The sprinters!
And one in particular will be chomping at the bit.

For the last four years there has only been one man with his arms in the air at the end of this stage and he will be keen to extend that marvellous winning streak to five.
 

Mark Cavendish.

The Manx Missile has been unstoppable in recent years as he has won with aplomb. In 2010 his winning margin was so much that his leadout man, Mark Renshaw finished second. Last year it was the yellow jersey himself, Sir Bradley Wiggins, that led him through the Place de la Concorde and onto victory.
 

However this could be the year where it ends.

He's not been as prolific as normal in this tour. Marcel Kittel, who is arguably the fastest man in the peloton at the moment, and Andre Greipel have both got the better of him and in Stage 12 Kittel actually came around him in the last 250m to win, something that has never happened before in the Tour de France.

Speeds are always high around here, and I mean incredibly high,  which means sprinters teams need to be strong and fast to get their man to the front of affairs. Argos-Shimano for Kittel and Lotto-Belisol for Greipel are probably the strongest leadout trains in the bunch. Cav's team, Omega-Pharma-Quickstep, are good, any team with Tony Martin will never be shy of a few Watts and kph! But they have lacked the cohesion at times to mount a strong challenge.

And even when they did get it almost spot on like into Tours, Cavendish hasn't had the speed.

But one thing that won't be missing is the desire. He knows what it takes to win around here and will be gunning for this. Will it be enough to defeat Kittel and Greipel? Time will tell but favourites for the win will definitely be these three.

It would be wrong to mention the King of the sprint stages and not mention the Green Jersey. Peter Sagan has taken this title for the second successive year, quite simply because of his consistency. He would love to take the win here but I think he will have to settle for top 5.

For an outsider look towards Alexander Kristoff. The big Norwegian has been due a big result since finishing second on the opening stage. He is a powerful sprinter which you need to be here, it's 400m from the corner on the Place de la Concorde to the line, so if you can hold your speed over a long period in time, you stand a chance.

It's been a fabulous tour, it deserves a fabulous finish. And under the twilight of Paris, it will get it!

********************************************************************************

As this is the last preview piece for the Tour I just wanted to take this opportunity to say a big thank you to everybody who has read this and for all the very nice comments.

I hope you have enjoyed reading it as much as I have enjoyed writing it. Cycling is a wonderful sport, from the colour and scenery, to the drama of the racing and the respect of these supreme athletes. Hopefully these blogs have helped with your enjoyment.

The Tour de France isn't the only race however so I'll be back in August with a daily preview of the last Grand Tour of the year, the Vuelta a'Espana. For those who have never seen it it's another 3 week race but with a lot more mountains! Always exciting and full of surprises.

Hope to see you then!

Cheers

Friday 19 July 2013

Tour de France 2013 : Stage 20 Preview

THIS may be classed as the penultimate stage but it is in fact the last chance saloon for anyone wanting to improve their overall standing.

And the organisers have given them a perfect chance to go out in style!

The route is short. At just 125km long (or 77.6 miles) it is the shortest road stage of this years tour. However that doesn't make it easy at all.


We travel from Annecy via a circular route, which includes five categorized climbs before the final ascent to the ski resort at Annecy-Semnoz.


Because of the shortness of the stage and the fact there is no more after this, expect attacks from the word go.


First up after just 7km it is the Cote du Puget, a category 2 climb which is 5.4km long at an average of 5.9%. Within 5km of this summit we are at the top of the category 3 Col de Leschaux. This is only 3.6km long but has an average gradient of 6.1%.
 

Saxo Tinkoff, Movistar and Katusha will all be off and running here with a two-fold plan. To break Chris Froome, or at the very least isolate him, and to distance the others. By the top of these two climbs we could be down to a very select group.

We haven't got far from here to the next pair of climbs. The Cote d'Aillon-le-Vieux is a cat 3 and climbs 4% over it's 6km length. It is 8km from this summit to the next. The Col des Pres is again category 3 and is another shorter climb at 3.4km. But like the Leschaux it has a high average gradient, this time 6.9%.


It will depend on how things have gone over the first two climbs as to whether these two provide any fireworks. There will be some movement but whether it is from the main protagonists is debatable.


And that's partly because of what comes next. The Mont Revard is a category 1 climb which starts just 12km later. It is 15.9km, and although it's average gradient is just 5.6% there are parts at the bottom that get above 8% and one part that even tops 10%.


The descent off the Revard could be just as pivotal. Very twisty and very technical it plays into the hands of someone like Alberto Contador, Joaquin Rodriguez or Alejandro Valverde. Froome will hope he still has allies, although by this point he will probably be down to just Richie Porte, because they will really test his descending abilities here.


With around 15km along the valley floor to go before the final assault, if he gets distanced he will find himself in a very lonely world, full of pain and hardship.


The final climb of this years Tour de France will see the final showdown. Annecy-Semnoz is 'hors categorie' and stretches out for 10.7km. It's average gradient is 8.5% but we are above 9% for 4km of it. There's a little 'false flat' about 3km into it which ironically comes just after the steepest part. From there on we don't go below 8% so it will be a long hard, constant slog.


The stage win is almost secondary on a day like this. It will all be about the GC and it will be those riders that will cross the line first. For me Nairo Quintana is the favourite. He's been denied once or twice so far but I think this will be his day. I don't think he'll get enough time to take over the yellow but the stage win will be well with in his grasp.


His challengers will be the usual suspects. Rodriguez has been in sparkling form in this last week and is a serious challenger to the podium spots of the Saxo Tinkoff duo of Contador and Roman Kreuziger.


Froome should be content to come out of today in one piece. He will have been hit from all angles and all-comers today so shouldn't be up for the stage win.


I can't really see any outsiders getting among the action. Mikel Nieve and Pierre Rolland may be up for any King of the Mountain points they can get but that will be about it. Bauke Mollema has struggled a little over the last few days so he may feature in the top 20 but possibly nothing more.


The only thing that may throw a spanner in the works is the weather. Thunderstorms have been forecast for the last few days but we have managed to avoid them so far. If the rain does come today then the descent off the Revard for example will be frightening. And if the clouds are too low it may affect TV coverage as well!


Whatever happens it's going to be a fantastic and memorable finish to what has been one of the most attacking and exciting tours in recent years.


And I can't wait!

Thursday 18 July 2013

Tour de France 2013 : Stage 19 Preview

IT really is a case of no rest for the wicked!

Following yesterday's epic stage up to Alpe d'Huez the tour continues it's punishing route through the Alps with another brutal stage.

Stage 19 takes the field 204.5km from Bourg-D'Oisans to Le Grand-Bornard and takes in five categorised climbs. And the big two come straight away.

Almost as soon as the the flag drops to mark the official start we will be climbing the 'hors categorie' Col du Glandon. It has an average gradient of just 5.1% but is a whopping 21.6km long. For those of you who have completed the Great North Run or any half marathon, that's 13.4 miles. And it's all uphill!

We descend to the foot of the next climb which is the mighty Col de la Madeleine, another HC climb which tops out at 2000m or  6561 feet. Slightly shorther than the Glandon at 19.2km, (just the modest 11.9 miles this time) but the gradient averages out at 7.9%.

These shouldn't decide the stage winner but they will be a magnet for those with designs on the polka dot King of the Mountain jersey. With 50 points on offer to the winner of both climbs, expect the morning breakaway to contain all the challengers for this prize, Mikel Nieve, Pierre Rolland, as well as the usual mix of chancers and teams after exposure for the sponsorship.


Don't be surprised if Movistar and Saxo Tinkoff also try to place a rider in the break, as they did today, as part of their long term strategy. They may even try to isolate Chris Froome early, although it would be a very bold and brave move, if a little foolhardy so early on.

Once off the Madeleine the peloton get a small respite as they pass through Albertville before they tackle the 2nd category Col de Tamie and then the 1st category Col de l'Epine. Both are tricky climbs. the Tamie is 8.6km long and averages 6.2%, though it does get up towards 8.4% towards the top. The l'Epine  is shorther at 6.1km but has an average gradient of 7.3% with two kilometres, one at the top and the other towards the foot of the climb, topping 9%.

I can see some of the teams of the GC boys planning something on l'Epine. It's summit is just under 40km from the finish and they could see this as a perfect springboard for an offensive. They may ask the main contenders like Alberto Contador, Nairo Quintana or Joaquin Rodriguez to go for it or more likely they may send one of their lieutenants up the road to prepare for the final climb.

That final climb comes with just 20km to go. The Col de la Croix Fry is a Cat 1 ascent with an average gradient of 7% over it's 11.3km length. It is a fairly steady climb with only section in the middle where it gets up to 9.2%.

Expect attacks from everybody here. Everyone has their own agenda, whether it is faint hopes of taking yellow, staying on or making the podium, or keeping/gaining a top 10 place. They will all try to distance their rivals here or put them under pressure at the very least.

Once over the top we have a very fast descent which isn't too technical, although their are one or two switchbacks, all the way into Le Grand-Bornard. It does kick up in the last 500m of the stage but not by anything too severe.

Stage win? I think today has Alejandro Valverde or Rodriguez written all over it. Froome has said he will not be challenging for stage wins but will instead be focused on defending his jersey. He seem to suffer a little more than the others yesterday so will be hoping that the battle for the podium becomes the priority.

So all he has to do is stay in touch with the likes of Contador, Quintana and Rodriguez and can even afford to give them a little bit of freedom. All three plus Valverde can climb and descend and will see the last 20km as a big opportunity.

For an outsider look to the likes of Garmin's Andrew Talansky. He is riding into a little bit of form and has been pretty active recently. He will be able to stay with the big guns and even though he is 12th overall, he is 16.24 down on Froome. He is just under two minutes off 10th place but that is a fairly big gap to pull back at this stage of the Tour so he may able to escape the clutches of the peloton.

Also don't be overly surprised to see Richie Porte in action on the last climb and descent. He has been helping Froome for the majority of the race and I think Sky may allow him to go for his own moment of glory. And he's more than capable in a stage like this.

Just two stages remain after this one and only one of them will have any effect on the overall standings. Time is running out to make your mark. Today will be just as exciting as any of the previous few stages!

Wednesday 17 July 2013

Tour de France 2013 : Stage 18 Preview

I MAY have already said this earlier in the race but if I did, and apologies if I did, I lied! Because THIS is the one stage not to miss!

The organisers have wanted to include as many iconic and infamous monuments to the tour as possible, and no tour is complete without the inclusion of Alpe d'Huez.

The Alpe is 13.8km with an average of 8.4%. It starts however at a gradient of 10.4% and just after the village of Huez it maxes out at 11.5%.

It is so iconic and so linked to the tour that each of it's famous 21 hairpin bends are named after previous winners here.

But it is not just the numbers or the hairpin bends that make it so memorable. For this, to the average cycling fan, is Mecca, Glastonbury and Las Vegas all rolled into one.

They come in their thousands. For years it used to be known as Dutch mountain as the Netherlanders turned the mountain orange. Now each corner seems to be adopted by a country, turn 10 for example is I believe Irish corner.

The road up to the Alpe was closed on Sunday, making the only way up it either by bike or on foot. People will have started camping there from last weekend, and possibly even earlier.

By the Tour arrives the atmosphere will be at fever pitch and it has been known for the crowd to get a little bit out of hand.

Taking all of this together makes the Alpe one of sport's greatest spectacles. But the organisers have taken it a step further this year.

Because we don't just climb it once, we're going up it twice!

For the first time in Tour history we are going to peel right and head over the the second category Col de Sarenne before heading back down to Le Bourg-d'Oisans and doing it all over again.

The stage itself runs a total of 172.5km from Gap to Alpe-d'Huez and takes in a total of six climbs, the Col de Manse (cat 2), Rampe du Motty (cat 3), Col d'Ornon (cat 2) as well as the two ascents of the Alpe (cat HC) and the Sarenne (cat 2).

It will be a stage that will see plenty of attacking from the GC men but the timing could be critical. Do you go on the first climb of the Alpe? The final run up? Do you try your luck on the tricky and technical descent of the Sarenne?

Then there is the question of who are you attacking. Following the time trial Chris Froome has opened up a massive lead over his nearest rival. Alberto Contador is second but he is 4 min 34 seconds adrift. Bauke Mollema is now 4th but has slipped to 6.23.

People will still want to put Froome under pressure on the off chance he will crack big style but the likelihood, barring any mechanical or other mishap, is that the Brit will ride into Paris on Sunday as the victor.
  So if Froome is now practically out of reach, focus for the rest of the top men will be on the remaing two steps on the podium and in making/retaining a top 10 position. And there are plenty of opportunities here.

If the top contenders keep looking at each other then someone may get away and gain a bit of time. We saw this on Mont Ventoux as the likes of Sylvain Chavanel and Mikel Nieve had a go and for a while they managed to get away.

However that advantage didn't last for too long when the Sky hammer went down.

And I can't expect the same again up the Alpe. I really can't see anybody outside of the top GC men winning the stage. Froome will be desperate to win here in the yellow jersey, regardless of the fact he doesn't really need to chase down every move. It would rubber stamp his victory and would be prove he is the best rider by far in this race (even if it may not silence the doubters).

Movistar are clearly planning something too, evident by time trial specialist Jonathan Castroviejo and Andrey Amador taking it easy in the TT. They will look to use Alejandro Valverde and Rui Costa on the climbs, either as super-domestiques or by getting them to attack constantly, to set Nairo Quintana up for the win, and hopefully a podium spot.

Contador will still fancy his chances of catching Froome and Saxo Tinkoff will also want Roman Kreuziger, who has moved up to 3rd, to retain that podium spot. They used these two to attack Froome on Tuesday and expect both to be active again.

The Belkin pair of Laurens Ten Dam and Bauke Mollema will be under serious threat. Ten Dam lost a minute into Gap and I think will drop away from the top spots. Mollema has done well so far though, despite a tough time trial, and may be able to stay with Froome and co.

The only outsider I can come up with is Joaquin Rodriguez. He has had a poor tour by his standards but does seem to be showing signs of coming into form. He is afr enough down on GC to maybe be given a little leeway and that might be enough to snatch the stage win.

Depending on Movistar's tactics Valverde may sneak away but it is likely when Quintana attacks, and it is a case of when not if, he will be caught by Froome's group.

But two ascents of Alpe d'Huez will punish even the best riders, including Froome.
  Once again this legendary mountain will play host to another spectacular stage where anything could happen.

And one you really need to watch!


 






Tuesday 16 July 2013

Tour de France 2013 : Stage 17 Preview

CHRIS Froome gained huge amounts of time in the first of this year's Individual Time Trials. The second one however may not be as profitable for him.

At first glance they appear to be fairly similar. The stage into Mont-Saint-Michel was 33km long. Stage 17 takes the riders from Embrun to Chorges, which is a total of 32km. However that is where the similarity ends.

While the route to the Mont was flat this route includes not one but two Category 2 climbs.

Straight from the start hut the road goes up, climbing 6.4km up the Cote de Puy-Sanieres with an average gradient of 6%.

That is followed by a fairly technical descent before the road kicks up again over the Cote de Reallon. This is slightly longer at 6.9km and slightly steeper, with an average gradient of 6.3%.

It is then 12km downhill to the finish on a descent that is not as twisting as the first.

It is a route that will test the riders and tactics will have to be spot on. Do you go fast up the first climb? The second one? Do you climb steadily and then descend like a bat out of hell? What bike will you use? A time trial one or a standard road machine?

A lot of questions then to be asked and though it will alter the overall standings, it is unlikely to be the stage that finally answers the questions about the destination of the yellow jersey and podium spots.

Climbers who would usually lose time on a ITT stage will actually find themselves at the top of the standings here. Men like Nairo Quintana, Dan Martin would have normally lost 3 minutes to the likes of Froome and Tony Martin but not here.

Tony Martin himself may not be the favourite here. A great time trialler, these climbs may be too much for him. He still should produce a decent time though but I don't see him on the top step of the podium for the stage.

Having said all that Froome should still be the man to beat. He is excellent against the clock and is proving to be the strongest in the mountains. If he descends sensibly he will probably be the favourite.

But it is a really fascinating stage as there are a lot of men who could potentially win, or at least make the top 10.

Alberto Contador, Bauke Mollema, Roman Kreuziger, Rui Costa and Micheal Kwiatkowski should all go well and consolidate their top 10 position overall.

Further down Joaquin Rodriguez, Quintana and Dan Martin shouldn't win the day but could put in very decent rides.

Outside of the big favourites look to Cadel Evans, Andrew Talansky and possibly Tejay Van Garderen.

For outsiders I like the look of Andrey Amador of Movistar. The Costa Rican can both climb and time trial. He has his focus on the Vuelta d'Espana but today could be a chance for him to see just how good his form is right now. Can definitely see him making the top 10 here.

Another outsider for the win would have been Thomas De Gendt of Vaconsoleil. He is currently 95th on GC, over one hour and 45 minutes behind Froome, but finished 3rd on the stage to Mont-Saint-Michel and finished on the podium in last year's Giro d'Italia after a fantastic ride on the Stelvio. He was in the break today but I would still not count him out.

It really is that difficult to call though. It should see Froome hold the majority of his advantage over the rest but the places below are definitely up for grabs.

But as we've seen so often during this 100th edition of Le Tour, expect anything!




Monday 15 July 2013

Tour de France 2013 : Stage 16 Preview

CHRIS Froome delivered a sensational ride on Sunday up Mont Ventoux to put some big time gaps into his rivals for yellow.

It is the third time so far in this Tour that he has done so, following his stage victory into Ax-3-Domaines and the individual time trial at Mont-Saint-Michel.

Yet on both previous occasions his rivals managed to put him under pressure and gain some time back, with his isolation in Bagneres-de-Briggore and through the crosswinds into Saint-Amand-Montrond.

Stages are running out for them to do this a third time and if they are going to make any impact at the top of the overall standings they are going to have to launch attacks at every opportunity.

Stage 16 gives them their first chance in this final week. It is 168km long and sees the riders head from Vaison-la-Romaine to Gap, and the foothills of the Alps.

Three climbs await them, the third category Cote de la Montagne de Bluye and two second category ascents, the Col de Macuegne and the Col de Manse.

The first two of these come within the opening 48km and while they will provide a chance for the breakaway to form, which might be allowed to go all the way by the peloton, they won't affect the GC riders.

The Col de Manse will however.

The climb itself is 9.5km long and has it's summit 11.5km from the finish. The average gradient is 5.2% but there are over 2km where that gradient rises to 7% and over. A tough climb and will see some attacks. But the climb is just the appetiser to the main event.

The descent off the mountain is infamous and will be crucial. It has it's place in tour history as it was on this descent that Joseba Beloki crashed in front of Lance Armstrong, effectively ending Beloki's career and forcing Armstrong over a field and ditch before rejoining the road.

It is fast, technical and will test Froome's descending skills to their limits. And I imagine there are some who will think they can gain anywhere from 30 seconds to a minute on the leader.

Alberto Contador isn't a bad descender and will hope he can use that to gain any sort of an advantage over the Brit.

Roman Kreuziger is probably the best of the bunch and could well try to link up with his team leader to force a move.

Bauke Mollema is an unknown variable to me when it comes to descending. We know he can climb and his time trialling is good but I'll admit to not knowing what he's like on the descents. I think he will have a go though, at the very least to ensure he retains his second place overall. Same goes for Nairo Quintana.

And for some that will become more and more central to their tactics as the days and kilometres roll by, defending their current position in the GC. Finishing on the podium in Paris is a massive thing and for the likes of Mollema, Contador, Kreuziger and Quintana it will eventually become more important to defend that position than attack Froome.

I do think that if the break gets caught then the winner will come from someone outside of the top 10 overall. The likes of Cadel Evans, Alejandro Valverde and Sylvain Chavanel will be favourites for the win simply due to their ability to go downhill very fast, their bike handling skills and time trialling ability.


Another man who can do that is the current green jersey holder (and most likely winner of that competition) Peter Sagan. He's already proven he can sprint, climb and pull wheelies halfway up mountains. expect his descending skills to be put on show here!
If Evans is not up to it then maybe BMC will finally let World Champion Philippe Gilbert off the leash. The Belgian had spoken to the press earlier this month about the fact he wasn't allowed to attack and had to work for his leader.

However if the breakaway does succeed, and under normal circumstances there should be no real reason for Sky to chase it, then all bets are of as to who will win. I do think Pierre Rolland will be in there as he will want the points on offer for the King of the Mountains competition. Vaconsoleil will also have a rider in there, and as both Juan-Antonio Flecha and Wout Poels have been very active so far, it wouldn't be a shock to see one of them in the break.

But whether they are at the front or following the break in, it is going to be the GC boys who will provide the entertainment.

And if you have never seen a cyclist go down a hill faster than a motorbike, then you may want to watch from behind a sofa!

Saturday 13 July 2013

Tour de France 2013 : Stage 15 Preview

WHEN the route of the this year's Tour was announced last October there was high expectations that Stage 15 would be a cracker, this being the 100th running of 'La Grande Boucle'.

And the organisers have not disappointed!

Sunday 14th July is Bastille Day, the biggest of the national holidays in France. Think Independence Day in America and you're pretty much there.

The public will be out in force for one huge party and Le Tour will be one of the main ingredients. And the biggest party will be on the slopes of the 'Giant of Provence', Mont Ventoux.

The mountain stands 1912 metres above sea level and climbs just under 1600m over a distance of 20.8km (12.9 miles) to an almost lunar landscape.

The average gradient is 7.5% but there are 8km where the gradient is above 9%, the maximum being 10.6%.

It is a beast of a climb, and even claimed the life of British cyclist Tommy Simpson in 1967.

On it's own it would make for a tough stage but the race director has gone one step forward, putting this at the end of the longest stage on the Tour.

The stage runs from Givors and is a total of 242.5km long (150.6 miles).

Then you have the heat, temperatures are forecast to be in the 80's and with a wind in the riders faces, the peloton will be very glad of Monday's rest day.

The stage has two possible scenarios, both of which are as likely as the other.

Firstly a breakaway will go away and depending who is in it, it may stay away until the end.

One thing is guaranteed, it will contain many Frenchman! I would expect Sylvain Chavanel, Thomas Voeckler and current French champion Arthur Vichot to be very active and trying their upmost to be involved.

The other French teams, Cofidis (Chrisophe Le Mevel? Jerome Coppel?), Saur Sojasun (Jerome Simon?) and AG2R La Mondiale (John Gadret?) will also be under orders to infiltrate the day's break.

Team Sky will have enough problems to try and control the big favourites and defend Chris Froome's lead. So if those in the breakaway have big enough time gaps, Sky will be more than happy to just control the peloton and allow the break to fight for the stage.

However the second possibility is, in my eyes, more probable.

Teams like Belkin, Saxo Tinkoff and Movistar will fancy putting Sky and Froome under pressure. The pace will be incredibly high coming to the bottom slopes of the Ventoux  and Sky seem to be imploding at the minute.

If they crank the pace up they will pull back the break on the last climb. It will then be a shootout among the 'big boys' for the win and for the GC.

Favourites? Well the heat and severity of the final climb seems to play into the hands of Nairo Quintana and Alberto Contador. Froome is originally from Kenya and does spend a lot of time in Africa but a lot will depend on how much he has in his legs and how much he will need to go into his reserves to stay with the front guys.

I have been impressed with Roman Kreuziger so far but he will be on domestique duty for Contador. Bauke Mollema came into this tour on form and it will be interesting to see how he goes today. Same goes for his team mate Laurens Ten Dam and Astana's Jakob Fuglsang.

Outsiders could well come from Euskatel. Mikel Nieve has been the strongest in that team and the Basque rider will enjoy the challenge.

Look for someone like Katusha's Daniel Moreno too. His leader Joaquin Rodriguez is currently 10th but almost six minutes down. Moreno may be given free rein to attack which would mean Rodriguez could follow the rest and let them do the work.

Final outsider? Romain Bardet from AG2R, if he isn't in the break, has showed some good form in the mountains. A young man with a big future according to the French press, he was 14th into Ax-3 Domaines and 24th into Bagneres-de-Biggore.

An ideal French win on the ideal French stage? Don't bet against it!



Friday 12 July 2013

Tour de France 2013 : Stage 14 Preview

WITH a huge stage coming on Sunday, the organisers could have given the peloton an easy run in to Lyon. But where's the fun in that!

Stage 14 sees the riders reach the foothills of the Alps as they travel 191km from Saint-Pourcain-sur-Sioule to Lyon.

The route takes in seven categorised climbs, two Cat 3's and five Cat 4's.

On their own they may not have caused the sprinters too much trouble. However put them all together and it is a safe bet you won't see the likes of Mark Cavendish or Marcel Kittel at the finish.

It is the two Category ascents in the middle of the stage which will cause the most damage. The Cote de Thizy-les-Bourgs is only 1.7km long but has an average gradient of 8.2%. This is followed less than 10km later by the Col du Pilon which has a far lower average gradient of just 4.4% but it goes on for 6.3km.

As these come straight after the day's intermediate sprint I can't imagine the sprinters busting a gut to stay with the peloton.

That is with one definite exception.

As with recent 'medium mountain' stages we could see a reduced peloton contest the sprint. And the current leader in the points classification is more than capable of getting over these lumps. Peter Sagan will be licking his lips at the thought of this stage as it could well see him extend his lead in the competition, to the point of his lead becoming almost unassailable.

He may have competition however. John Degenkolb of Argos Shimano can also get over the lumpy stuff as can the likes of Tony Gallopin of Radioshack and Francesco Gavazzi of Astana. Despite this the Slovakian should have more than enough in the tank to beat anyone today.

However there is the potential fly in his ointment and one which might deprive him of the win.

Chris Froome heads into this stage leading second placed Bauke Mollema by 2 minutes 28 seconds with third placed Alberto Contador 17 seconds behind that.

As Saxo Tinkoff proved today opportunities to reduce those gaps can come without warning. But to have any chance of winning the tour you have to take them and make Froome suffe
r.

Movistar also proved that it is possible to weaken the Brit and his all conquering Sky train last Sunday. And Sky are reeling at the minute. Having already seen climbing super domestique Vassili Kiryenka head home, they lost Edvald Boasson Hagen to injury on Thursday. With Geraint Thomas and Peter Kennaugh not at 100% either Froome is fast running out of support riders.

Stages are also getting less and less so the GC contenders will be well aware of that.

The final two climbs come within the last 15km and while not particularly taxing they could well prove to be a launching pad for someone to attack the Malliot Jaune. The likes of Joaquin Rodriguez, Dan Martin and Alejandro Valverde could all fancy spreading their wings and going for it.


Valverde went into today's stage in second placed but he had an awful day as first a puncture and then crosswinds saw him lose contact with his main rivals, eventually finishing almost 10 minutes behind.

Movistar will also be angry at what they will perceive as poor sportsmanship by Belkin. (Belkin put more men at the front after Valverde punctured in order to aid their man Mollema's GC position)

I think Froome will be able to cope with one or two but where Movistar let themselves down into Bagneres-de-Biggore was that they didn't keep hitting him with constant attacks. If they or someone else can do that here they may weaken the Sky leader enough to claw back a handful of seconds.

Don't be surprised if the attacks come early as well. The earlier into the stage the more chance they have of hurting Sky, if not for today but certainly for tomorrow.

Movistar will probably be looking for a reaction after today and could be the main instigators of any attacking.

It will be an intriguing day of racing and is just part one of what could be a powder keg weekend!

Thursday 11 July 2013

Tour de France 2013 : Stage 13 Preview

IT'S another so called transitional stage for the peloton as they face 173km from Tours to Saint-Amand-Montrond.

It should mean another bunch sprint, in fact scratch that. It WILL mean another bunch sprint.

Yes a breakaway will go but the sprinters teams will not want an opportunity to slip by so they will be given a short gap and then reeled in before the finish.

There is only categorised climb, the Cat 4 Cote de Crotz, which comes 96km from the end and will not cause any concern to the main favourites.

What will be of concern is the finish, which again has some serious obstacles inside the last km.

First there's a 90 degree left hand turn with around 900km to go. The road then swings right through another 90 degree turn before the third and final sweeping left hand curve with around 450m to go.

The crash in stage 12 will do nothing to calm the nerves in the peloton as GC guys and sprinters alike try to stay at the front of the group.

Whoever manages to do this will then hope to be around that final corner in the first half dozen spots in order to go for the stage win.

Mark Cavendish had a perfect lead out today but quite surprisingly Marcel Kittel proved to be the fastest man.

It is not the first time this tour that the German has got the better of the British Champion and there is bound to be frustration for the Manxman.

I have picked Cav for a few stages simply because he is (was?) the fastest man on two wheels. I do believe he will come good but at the minute Kittel is on top form. It's hard to go against the German again.

It won't be a two horse race though. Andre Greipel was caught up behind the crash and although he got through unscathed, he was out of the final fight. He is the German champion and will not be happy at the spotlight of his home country moving to the young pretender. Expect him to go fast and hard for the win.

The others will all be there again. Peter Sagan was third today with Alexander Kristoff fourth.

Daryl Impey got involved in the sprint for Orica GreenEdge and others who are proving to be good bets for a top 10 are Roberto Ferrari, Jose Joaquin Rojas and Juan Jose Lobato.

The GC guys will hope for a easy and calm finish. Ian Stannard managed to guide Chris Froome through the mayhem and will hope to do so again. Saturday and definitely Sunday will be firmly in their minds and they won't want any problems going into it.

But going back to the stage win, I would say it'll end up being a Germany - England confrontation. And as with our footballing sides, the favourite is probably a German!

And that's without penalties!

Wednesday 10 July 2013

Tour de France 2013 : Stage 12 Preview

IT'S a day one man has been dreading above all others.

Even Mark Cavendish looking at the double ascent of L'Alpe d'Huez is not quaking in fear as much.

The man? Eurosport's commentator Carlton Kirby!

Stage 12 travels 218km (or 135.5 miles) from Fougeres to Tours and bar the obligatory intermediate sprint, there is nothing on the profile. No climbs, no descents, nothing.

It means a long day behind the microphone as a break goes up the road and the sprinters teams take their time bringing them back. Expect as much waffle and time filling as it is possible to muster. And expect many scenic shots as the helicopter goes looking for Chateau's and vineyards!

Once the break has been caught the finish at least should bring some excitement. With about 2.5km to go the road swings through two 90 degree bends, first left and then right, as we cross the river.

Then with 700m we turn right through another 90 degrees and again with 400m to go.

It will mean any leadout train will have their rhythm severely disrupted and position for the last two corners will be paramount. Anyone with designs on the stage win will need to be in the one of the first five positions out of that last corner.

It will really raise the likelihood of a crash in the peloton as nerves will be high and sprint teams race to get their man into the best position possible for those final two corners.

The nullification somewhat of the sprint teams at the end means we could see other riders getting close to the now established names of potential sprint winners.

Roberto Ferrari has figured in the top 20 in a few of the sprint stages so far but without the success of the Giro d'Italia in 2011. Samuel Dumoulin is another who can't be totally ruled out. While he could never be classed as a top sprinter, the diminutive Frenchman has a habit of appearing through carnage and other peoples difficulties to grab good results. Could be an outsider for a top 3 place here.

And you just can't seem to keep Orica Green-Edge away from the spotlight. Matt Goss was 11th into Saint-Malo the other day. He should be able to go higher than that.

The likelihood is though that the winner will be from that elite sprint group. Kittel looks fast at the minute and both of his wins so far in this Tour have come without the aid of a sprint train. I have him down to pip the likes of Greipel, Cavendish, Sagan and Kristoff.

It will be a chaotic finish to what will be a fairly quiet day. Quiet that is except for the Eurosport commentary box!

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Best Young Rider Classification (White Jersey)

Eddy Merckx famously won every jersey going in the 1969 Tour de France, his first appearance at the race.

He would have won this one too had it been in existence!

First awarded in 1975 the title has been given to the best rider on GC under the age of 25 since 1987. The jersey itself came fully into existence in 2000.

It has been won by some of the great in the sport, as well as some of the now disgraced, and has seen some of it's winners go on to swap white for yellow. The likes of Andy Schleck, Alberto Contador and Marco Pantani all won this competition prior to the big one.

And Schleck, Contador, Jan Ullrich and Laurent Fignon are the only four men to have won both in the same year.

It is basically a competition within a competition. It uses the same rules as defines the overall standings. Tejay Van Garderen won the white jersey last year while finishing 8th overall.

This year as I've mentioned previously, barring a crash or other such misfortune, the jersey will be a two horse race between Nairo Quintana and Michael Kwiatkowski.

Both have been touted as future winners of the Tour and for good reason. Both can time trial and both can climb although the Colombian excels more in the lumpier stuff while the Pole takes the plaudits against the clock.

With the Alps fast approaching it will be fascinating to see how they react. Both are in their first tour and the final week of any three week tour brings with it a whole new range of issues, as the riders cope with fatigue and a savage profile.

They have shown enough already to cement their reputation and potential. Don't be surprised if this jersey is just the start of many for them both.

Tuesday 9 July 2013

Tour de France 2013 : Stage 11 Preview

WHEN Sir Bradley Wiggins won last year's tour he owed a lot to Team Sky's dominance in the mountains.

However it was his performances in the Individual Time Trials that were arguably the main reason for his success. Wiggins took a total of 1.51 out of Chris Froome in last years two stages, over half of his final advantage. 


Stage 11 sees the first of this year's tests against the clock and Froome will be hoping to emulate his team mate by putting major time gaps into his rivals. 


The route is straight out of the minds of the French Tourist Board. Travelling 33km it heads from Avranches in Normandy to the second most visited tourist attraction in France, Mont-Saint-Michel. 


It is an almost flat route and the biggest natural threat to the riders could be cross or headwinds. 


Froome will go into it defending a 1.25 lead over Movistar's Alejandro Valverde but he will be expecting to stretch that advantage somewhat. Valverde is not the best time-triallist in the world and this course will not suit him. 


Of the other GC contenders it will be interesting to see how Alberto Contador goes. He has won a  Tour time-trial before in 2009 the past but admitted that his legs weren't the best over the weekend. He will have had two days to recover though so won't be too far off the pace but I do expect him to lose more time to Froome. That said he should still move up the standings. 


Bauke Mollema is an interesting one. Currently third in the overall standings he isn't bad against the clock. In the recent Tour de Suisse he finished second overall after a great ride in the final ITT. He could well move ahead of Valverde after this stage. 


The man who beat him in that time trial and to the Suisse title was Rui Costa. The Portuguese man is currently 10th, 2.45 down on Froome and 1.20 on Valverde. It is not inconceivable he could catch Valverde in the overall standings. 


Roman Kreuziger has looked one of the strongest men at this race and could have been higher in the GC had he not followed team orders and helped Contador through the mountains. A former U19 World Champion at this event, he will be able to post a decent time, which could move him into a podium position. 


Also don't count out the BMC duo of Cadel Evans and Tejay Van Garderen either. Both lost time in the Pyrenees but both, if they have recovered enough, can set good times. 


Of course the time-trial is not just about the overall positions. Their will be a battle for the stage win and the white jersey for best young rider. 


It is currently on the shoulders of Nairo Quintana with the young Colombian holding a 1.23 lead over Michael Kwiatkowski. Behind these stand Romain Bardet at 5.07 and Andrew Talansky at 7.33. Thibault Pinot is next but he is over 29 minutes down. 


Quintana can time-trial as can Kwiatkowski, although the young Pole just about has the advantage. It will mean he should close the gap and could herald a very interesting contest moving into the Alps. Both could feature in the top 10 here, definitely the top 20. Talansky is a good time trialler but has not looked on form so far this tour. He will need some effort to get close to the jersey. 


For the stage win you would be hard pushed to look beyond Tony Martin. The Omega Pharma Quickstep man is the current World Champion at this discipline and the course will suit him. He suffered a big crash on stage one but has been quietly nursing his wounds for a week now and I still see him as the big favourite.

 
Outsiders for a Top 10 finish on the stage will be Sylvain Chavanel, Peter Velits and Maxine Monfort. 


**********************************************************************************************


Time Trials 


Individual Time Trials, or the Race of Truth as it is sometimes known, is where the big technological advances in cycling have been most keenly noticed. 


Specialist machines and solid disk wheels were already in use when American Greg Lemond arrived at the Tour in 1989. 


Wearing an aero helmet and with triathlon bars attached to his machine he managed to overturn a 50 second deficit to Laurent Fignon in the final stage, winning by just 8 seconds, the smallest winning margin in history. 


Just five years later Chris Boardman arrived with his Lotus Carbon Fibre machine that had steered him to Olympic glory in Barcelona. 


From then on advances have been made in every aspect, from the machine itself to the specialised skinsuits of the athletes. Sky for example have spent hours in the wind tunnel perfecting the perfect suit, looking at everything from the material to where the stitching should go.

 
Sky have even used the wind tunnel to help modify and improve Froome's position on the bike, anything to eke out a few more seconds.


But despite all these changes it still boils down to one thing. You against the clock. Speeds reached are incredibly fast, the average speeds for both of Wiggins victories in last years Tour was 48.4 kph and 50.0 kph. 


Speeds will be high again, especially if the wind is behind the riders as forecast. Riders adopt the most aerodynamic position possible and will rarely be seen out of the saddle. The smoother the pedal stroke the quicker they go. Or so the theory has it!


Expect many changes in the overall standings today and even more advances in the next few years.

Monday 8 July 2013

Tour de France 2013 : Stage 10 Preview

AFTER the trials and tribulations of the mountains, it's time to turn our attentions back to the sprinters.

Stage 10 sees the peloton at the opposite end of the country to the Pyrenees with a 197km route through Brittany from Saint-Gildas-des-Bois to Saint-Malo.


The profile shows just one Cat 4 climb coming 55km from the finish although there are a couple of uncategorized lumps early in the stage which may prove a springboard for a breakaway.


The last part of the course hugs the coastline and can be described as rolling but shouldn't be testing unless there is a wind coming off the Channel. The final 5 km are pretty straight with just a slight dogleg right with 350m to go to test the sprinters.


A break will be allowed to go early on and while the responsibilities will be on Team Sky to keep it in check, it should be a fairly easy day for them. Once over the Cote de Dinan expect some of the sprinters teams to come and give them a hand in reeling the escapees back.


Favourites for the stage are the usual suspects. Mark Cavendish, Andre Greipel, Peter Sagan, Alexander Kristoff will all be in the mix again. Greipel looks the strongest at the minute but you can never count out Cav. Or Sagan for that matter.


If you want outsiders for the sprint then look to the former race leader Daryl Impey to be involved. He is in great form and I think Orica Green Edge will hand him the opportunity to go for the win ahead of Matt Goss. Euskatel's Juan Jose Lobato del Valle has also been impressive through this race and should gain another top 10 finish here.


If the wind does get up, and the forecast has it coming from the north east which will be behind the field for the last 10km or so, then we could see someone try and jump away from the group along the coast. Juan Antonio Flecha has been very active this year as has his team Vaconsoleil as they attempt to attract new sponsors. A lone attack suits Flecha's style down to the ground and he certainly has the power to back it up. If the peloton hesitate and allow someone like him to go they may miss out altogether.


***********************************************************************************************


The Points Classification (Green Jersey)


There is more than one race within the Tour de France. Not everyone can win the yellow jersey so in 1953 the organisers introduced the Malliot Vert for the best daily finisher. The colour green was chosen because the sponsor at the time was a lawn mower producer.


Usually this is a competition for the sprinters. Points are available to the first 15 finishers on each stage and there are more on offer on the flat than in the mountains or time trials.


There is also one intermediate sprint each day which also gains points towards the classification.


So for a stage like today 45 points are awarded to the first man across the line with the rest getting 35, 30, 26, 22, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4 and 2 respectively.

 
For medium mountain stages the winner gets 30 points with 20 points going to the winner of a high mountain stage or time trial.


Intermediate sprints also awarded 20 points to the first across the line.


Last years winner Peter Sagan looks on course to retain his title. He currently holds a fairly substantial lead in this competition, a full 93 points clear of Andre Greipel in second and 106 points ahead of Mark Cavendish in third.


Sagan owes this lead predominantly to his ability to get over mountains and hills better than his rivals and in particular to stage seven. Here he was able to hoover up a full 65 points while his main competitors struggled to get over the climbs and picked up nothing.


It is worth noting that you don't have to win the most stages to get this jersey. Cav won six stages in the 2009 tour and five in 2010 yet finished second in this classification.


And I would expect Greipel and Cavendish to both rack up more wins than Sagan this time around. But nothing, other than a crash and abandonment,  will stop the Slovakian from taking the title again.

Saturday 6 July 2013

Tour de France 2013 : Stage 9 Preview

STAGE eight was the first of a two part Pyrenees adventure and boy did it deliver the fireworks we expected. Stage nine will have to really go some to match it but the profile certainly gives it a fighting chance!
 
It sees the field head from Saint-Girons to Bagneres-de-Bigorre but whereas the sat-nav will take you on a nice 110km ride through the valleys, the peloton face a 168.5km route which crosses one category 2 climb and four cat 1's.
 
It means a total of 42.9km of climbing although the final mountain comes 30km from the finish, leaving a long a fast run into the finish.
 
Team Sky absolutely blow their opposition apart on stage eight which means the responsibility of controlling the race falls to them. It is a difficult day to do so but it is not something that will phase or bother them.
 
Such was their domination that Chris Froome, and second placed Richie Porte, now have huge gaps over the other main rivals meaning they have to come out fighting if they want to get anything out of this race.
 
Just look at some of the gaps:
 
3 Alejandro Valverde - 1.25
7 Alberto Contador - 1.51
9 Joaquin Rodriguez - 2.31
23 Cadel Evans - 4.36
35 Ryder Hesjedal - 8.29
44 Tejay Van Garderen - 12.38!
 
For some, like Hesjedal and Van Garderen, barring a miracle the tour is already lost. It does mean that we must start talking about names that weren't considered challengers prior to the grand depart.
 
Movistar seem the most likely to challenge the British outfit. Valverde is now third after grimly hanging on to the coat-tails of Froome and Porte. He is 1.25 down.
 
Team mate Nairo Quinatna shrugged off 3 falls in 3 days to produce a great climbers display, reminiscent of the great Colombian climbers of the past like Luis Herrara and Fabio Parra. He couldn't fend off the charging Sky express though and finds himself 8th at 2.02 behind.
 
Rui Costa is the third challenger. He dropped away late on in the stage but is just 2.45 down in 11th. It allows Movistar to 'gang up' on Sky if they want by sending different attackers up the road and force them to chase.
 
Some of the strongest men of the day were the Belkin duo of Laurens Ten Dam and Bauke Mollema. They finished fourth and fifth respectively on the stage and are now fourth and fifth overall as well, 1.44 and 1.50 behind.
 
Roman Kreuziger also looked strong but had to wait for his team leader Contador. If the Spaniard continues to suffer expect the Czech to be given leadership of Saxo Tinkoff.
 
I can see one of three things happening today.
 
Firstly we could see the likes of Evans, Valverde and Contador attack in an attempt not only to gain time back but also isolate Froome.
 
Secondly the main favourites will all just watch each other and roll into town together in a reduced peloton.
 
The third option seems the more likely. If Sky can engineer it properly a breakaway should head off up the road and not be seen again.
 
There is a total of 45 mountains points up for grab and those who have designs on that jersey will want to be involved.
 
Pierre Rolland is one of these riders and at almost five minutes down Sky may well be happy to let him go.
 
Others who may possibly want to get into the break to enhance their chances in that competition are AG2R's John Gadret, FDJ's Arnold Jeanesson and Lampre's Przemyslaw Niemic.
 
Movistar may want to put someone in there like Andrey Amador. The Costa Rican would be a perfect man to put into the break for Valverde and co. He is a good climber, can time-trial well and could still be a danger overall. Sky would be nervous about the likes of him but may be content to let him get a small gap.
 
Thomas Voeckler won this competition last year and this stage looks perfect for him. He is far enough down as well to be allowed to leave so it would be a shock not to see him in the break.
 
Compatriot Sylvain Chavanel is another who will like the look of this profile.
 
For me it's between these two for the stage. If it came to a sprint Chava would be the favourite but this just stage just has Tommy written over it. Expect him to be in the break and then make a crazy attack....and make it stick!

Friday 5 July 2013

Tour de France 2013 : Stage 8 Preview

STAGE eight will really throw the cat amongst the pigeons as the race moves into the Pyrenees and the high mountains.

For a week now I have been talking of the likes of Mark Cavendish, Peter Sagan and Andre Greipel. However don't expect to hear or read anything about them for a good few days.

Instead It will be the big favourites who the focus will switch to, the riders who have designs of standing on top of the podium in Paris. This is their first chance to really show what they are about.

The stage is 195km long and goes from Castres to 3-Ax Domaines. A small cat 4 climb 26km into the stage is a mere footnote of what is to come.

First up is the Col de Paiheres which is an HC mountain, i.e. beyond categorisation, and tops out at 2001m above sea level. It is 15.3km long (that's 9.5 miles) and has an average gradient of 8%. It's maximum gradient is 10.5% which it reaches for 2km of it's total length. It's summit is just 29km from the finish.

This will be where the first shots fired in anger will take place. Those that want the stage win and those targeting the King of the Mountains jersey will definitely attack here. The main GC contenders may wait until the final climb.

That climb of 3-Ax Domaines is a Cat 1 and climbs 607m to finish 1350m above sea level. It is shorter in length than the Paiheres at 7.8km although it has a steeper average gradient of 8.2%.

The last time we were here in 2010 the winner was Christophe Riblon of AG2R, which came from a breakaway. It is unlikely that this will be the outcome again.

The one definite we have is that there will be a new yellow jersey come teatime on Saturday. The question is will it be the final change of this years Tour?

If all the favourites were to come in together Team Sky's Chris Froome would take over the lead, level on time with his team mate Richie Porte. Third would be Alberto Contador who would find himself just 6 seconds behind.

Froome is the better time trialer so others, like Contador and Joaquin Rodriguez, must try and put some time into him in the mountains. Sky will know this and will be quite happy to set a fast pace on the final climb in much the same way as they did on La Planche des Belle Filles last year, a stage that saw Froome take the stage and Sir Bradley Wiggins take the race leadership.

That day they blew virtually the full race apart and I would expect them to try something similar here. This mountain is longer than La Planche but not as steep and while some of the personnel has changed, Sky certainly still has the firepower to make it difficult.

They would be completely happy taking over the race lead as well and to defend it all the way to Paris. If the opportunity comes to take the stage as well they will take it so Froome or Porte are definitely in the mix for this one.

The others may be content to let them get on with it and not attack, knowing that tomorrow sees an even harder stage. But if they want to have any chance of winning the tour they can't really wait and need to take every opportunity.

Contador is the type of rider to give it a go, on a number of occasions if necessary. He didn't look on the best of form during the Criterium de Dauphine and admitted that he was only about 80-90%. However he also said that was where he wanted to be and by the tour he would be 100%. He has stayed out of trouble so far and I think he will be able to stay with the Sky train. It would be a big a big surprise if he gets distanced.

BMC have the twin threats of Cadel Evans and Tejay Van Garderen. Evans has come here as the team leader with the young American acting as his main support. Evans managed to stay with Sky last year and while I don't think he'll attack, he should be able to finish with the leaders. Any slip from him though and Van Garderen will be ready to take over his mantle, should the team decree it.

Rodriguez has no choice, he has to attack and gain time in the mountains. He is not good against the clock and after the TTT he finds himself 25 seconds behind Froome. Whether he finishes in front of, with or behind Froome on this stage will depend on the number and severity of his attacks. Shouldn't lose too much time though, if any.

It will be interesting to see how the others go. Movistar have an all star climbing team with Alejandro Valverde, Rui Costa, Amedy Amador and Nairo Quintana, although the Colombian wonderkid seems to have spent more time on the floor recently than the bike. Garmin likewise bring some big climbing talent in Ryder Hesjedal, Dan Martin and Andrew Talansky. Both teams will want to test the waters at some point in the Pyrenees. They should have strength in depth but can they challenge the Sky dominance?

Elsewhere Bauke Mollema had a wonderful Tour de Suisse, winning stage two and finishing second overall, and he has enjoyed a fairly trouble free tour so far. He could give the low countries something to cheer about after their big favourite Jurgen Van de Broeck withdrew on stage 6.

Astana have had an awful tour so far losing Andrey Kashechkin, Janez Brajkovic and Robert Kiserlovski. It will be up to Jakob Fuglsang to try and rescue the situation, although without his best three  lieutenants in the mountains it will be difficult. Don't rule him out as an outsider though.

But if you want an outsider for the stage then think Orange!

The Pyrenees are the domain of the Basque's. Their red and green flags will be very visible throughout our stay in the mountains as will their team, Euskatel-Euskadi.  Euskatel do not have anyone who can really challenge for the overall win but they do have some very good climbers in their ranks and in Igor Anton and Mikel Nieve they have two men who could well be targeting a top 10 finish in Paris.

Expect them to be on the attack for the full day and look to Nieve as an outsider for the stage.

With this being the first foray into the mountains you can't be certain of anything yet. We will know more by the end of the day however and if you've never watched cycling before, this is the stage for you!

The Tour begins in earnest now!

Thursday 4 July 2013

Tour de France 2013 : Stage 7 Preview

MARK Cavendish was expected to roar into Montpellier to take his second successive stage win. However Andre Greipel timed his run perfectly to take the win. Stage seven will provide him with another chance to prove he is better than the Manxman.

It's a bit more of a rolling profile than previously and in fact shares some similarities with stage two. It takes the riders 205km from Montpellier to Albi and crosses four categorised climbs. One cat 2, two cat 3's and a cat 4.

However whereas on stage 2 the sprinters who were dropped early on the 2nd category Col de Vizzavona only had 60km to recover, here they will have plenty of time to rejoin the peleton.  The 2nd cat climb here is the 6.7km long Col de la Croix de Mounis but it's summit is 111km from the finish. The final climb of the day, the cat 4 Cote de Teillet comes 36km from the end.

The run in itself is straight and flat for the last km and with only a few kinks in the final 5km should be tailor-made for a sprint finish.

Can Cav make amends or will Greipel repeat? Cav is clearly over his recent illness but got he and OPQS got their timings all wrong. A hard chase to get back into contention after a slight tumble also did him no favours.

Greipel however took advantage on a perfect leadout by his Lotto-Belisol team

Cannondale will be out to try and make it hard for them both tomorrow in the hills. If they can put enough of distance into the sprinters it will mean a very hard chase just to get back to the bunch, which could nullify the sprint trains somewhat.

Peter Sagan still hasn't won a stage yet despite some close run things. He will be desperate to win and really cement his lead in the green jersey.

Again those people who have dominated the top 10 in recent days will be there or thereabouts. This means Marcel Kittel, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Alexander Kristoff, et al. I can't see anyone outside of these top quick men getting anywhere near if it ends as expected in a sprint.

With the exception of Juan Jose Lobato del Valle. The Euskatel rider has finished 7th and 5th in the last two days and could well make the top 10 again.

But I still think Cav will do it. He will be fuming after missing out today so expect a reaction and win number 25.

However for that to happen it has to actually finish in a bunch sprint. This could be well be a day that the breakaway makes it although a lot will depend on what happens during the stage. Those who are looking for an early lead in the King of the Mountains jersey will mix with the have-a-go heroes and if they can get a strong group together they will have a good chance of making it all the way to the line.

Riders who will go for the breakaway are interchangeable but expect teams such as Europcar (Pierre Rolland?), Vaconsoleil (Westra, De Gendt, Flecha?), Saur Sojasun, Euskatel, Cofidis and AG2R to all try and infiltrate the escape.

Don't expect to see any of the big favourites though today, other than trying to stay out of trouble at the front of the bunch. Saturday and Sunday sees the race enter the Pyrenees which is guaranteed to be huge in terms of the overall. Fireworks will be expected from the likes of Chris Froome, Alberto Contador and Cadel Evans then.

As they will be from the Manx Missile today!

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Sprint Trains

These are a fairly new phenomenon and owe Mark Cavendish really for their creation.

In days gone by there was no real structure to a bunch sprint. The fast men gathered near the front, the rest got out of their way and the bun fight began!

And in some cases actual fights broke out. Headbuts, punches were all common place. I even remember Belgian sprinter Tom Steels hurling a water bottle at a rival he felt had impeded him, all at speeds of 50+ kph!

However it was while Cav was at Team HighRoad that a plan of attack was brought in. His team realised that if they could navigate through the carnage and keep him towards the front, there was very few people who were going to beat him for speed.

And so this is what they did. They would put three or four riders ahead of Cav with about 5km to go, move to the front and keep the pace so high that nobody could launch off the front or come past them.

The last man in the line would, in theory, take him all the way to about 200-300m to go and then the 'missile' would be launched.

It proved so effective that now everybody does it to the point that there is often three sprint trains leading the peloton in a strange trident formation.

Because it has been proved that riding in somebody's slipstream saves you around 20% in terms of energy then sprinters themselves almost get an armchair ride till the very last moments of the stage. It is why after every win Mark will thank his team profusely, saying something along the lines of 'I couldn't have done it without my team' and 'They rode so hard'.

You can still win a bunch sprint without a team helping you. But it involves knowing which wheel to be on and at what time, as well as an amazing amount of bravery and luck!

And while the sprint trains remain effective they will rule the roost in any massed finish.

Wednesday 3 July 2013

Tour de France 2013 : Stage 6 Preview

IF there was a slight doubt about stage 5 there is absolutely no uncertainty about stage 6. This will definitely finish in a bunch sprint.

And even the profile supports this. The last real corner comes with around 3km to go and from there on in it's a virtual straight run to the line.

The route takes the riders the 176km from Aix-en-Provence to Montpellier. It crosses just one categorised climb, the cat 4 Col de la Vayede after 68km. There's nothing after this but flat roads all the way to the finish.

A breakaway will go out early on, it will be brought back. Even Spain v Tahiti in the recent Confederations Cup wasn't that nailed on!

Favourite? Really can't look past Mark Cavendish again for this. Despite his brush with bronchitis in the last week he proved yesterday that he is back to 100%. Mind even a 90% fit Mark Cavenidsh is not something that can be easily beaten!

His leadout train (and by this I mean the entire Omega Pharma Quickstep team) proved in the Team Time Trial that they are absolutely flying at the moment. Even the injury to Tony Martin is not preventing him for producing some serious power.

They were immense in stage five and I can see a repeat. The loss in the TTT has clearly hurt them, especially as the winning margin was less than a second.

Outside of this it's the usual suspects. Andre Griepel, Marcel Kittel, Alexander Kristoff, Nacer Bouhanni will all be mixing it in the final stages. Orica Green Edge have had a good tour so far ( if you ignore the bus calamity!) and have taken two stage victories. Matt Goss is their hope for another one here although the big Aussie has not been firing on all cylinders recently.

Further down and aiming for at least a  top 10 place will be Team Sky's Edvald Boasson Hagen, Movistar's Jose Joaquin Rojas and Julien Simon of Saur-Sojasun.

But barring a disaster it will be the Manx Missile standing atop the podium celebrating win number 26, which will put him just 8 behind Eddie Merckx in the list of most Tour de France stage wins.

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Breakaways

Why do people attack and get into breakaways? They never succeed!

It's a fair question. In years gone by breaks could disappear up the road inside the opening kilometres and not be seen again all day. Going back to 1990 a four man break containing Frans Maassen, Ronen Pensec, Steve Bauer and Claudio Chiappucci attacked on stage one and came home a full 10 minutes clear of the field. These four ended up sharing the yellow jersey between them for 19 days, losing it with just two days to go to eventual winner Greg Lemond.

In 2006 Oscar Periero got into a break on stage 13 and incredibly took just under 30 minutes out of the peleton. It was a break that ultimately won him the yellow jersey that year.

But these days teams, and sprinters teams in particular, rarely allow a break to stay away for the full stage. There is less stages these days for their quick men to profit from so they take every opportunity going.

So the question remains. Why do it?

In some cases it is simply a case of getting your name and more importantly the name of your sponsor on TV. Vaconsoleil for example, are pulling out of the sport at the end of the year so the current team need to showcase their talents to try and attract a new sponsor.

Europcar have been active a great deal so far. As a French team it is vital for them to be prominent throughout their home tour. Same applies to AG2R La Mondiale and Saur Sojasun.

However the overriding reason in most cases is quite simple. As the examples above prove, sometimes a break does work. And for teams like those above who don't have a top sprinter or a overall GC contender, these days represent their only chances of getting a stage win.

So expect breaks on every day and eventually one will work!